Talking about weather

I was late getting off to sleep on Sunday night, because, having left the windows open for cooling, I found myself having to fend off autumn mosquitoes. Usually, the little monsters are leaving me alone well before March ends. How I wish we didn't have ancient windows that are unsuitable for insect screens!

The Weather bureau tells us that unseasonably warm, sunny days will continue in Sydney for the rest of the week, peaking on Friday with a top of 26 degrees, or about 4 degrees above average.

Some of my American and English friends mocked advocates of global warming during the northern winter because of the extreme cold they experienced. As I remarked then, weather is not climate. And, in Sydney this week, the weather is not the climate, either.

In fact, the expectation is that, sometime on Saturday, temperatures will drop quickly, and ANZAC Day (Sunday) will be quite cold in the morning, warming to a maximum of 23 degrees.

The cause of the change will be the movement of an intense cold front through Victoria and NSW, bringing rain and cool winds

.

On the climate side, Professor David Hand, President of the Royal Statistical Society, a participant in the review of the so-called "climategate scandal", recently concluded that the University of East Anglia scientists had behaved honestly and fairly and had not engaged in deliberate scientific malpractice. In fact, re-analysing the data, he concluded that it shows a clear warming signal.

However, Professor Hand was also critical of the scientists' use of inappropriate statistical methods, which have exaggerated some of the effects of warming. He rejects the infamous "hockey stick" curve which has been criticised by warming sceptics in the past. Hand was surprised that scientists working in the climate change field, where statistical analysis is so vital, had chosen not to obtain more assistance from professional statisticians.

The unfortunate comment by Professor Phil Jones of East Anglia, about a "trick" to "hide the decline" in temperatures was accepted in the report as a mere reference to a statistical technique rather than a devious act to misrepresent data.

An earlier investigation had also concluded that the expression "hide the decline" was scientific shorthand for the act of discarding erroneous data and that, when Jones spoke of a "trick" he meant it was a neat way of handling evidence -- a fairly common use of the term.

One good result of the entire kerfuffle is that, regardless of the outcome of a third investigation focusing on Freedom of Information issues, it is unlikely that climate scientists will be as inclined to hoard raw data or attack their opponents as the East Anglia scientists obviously have been. But, most importantly, the investigations are reinforcing the argument that we are facing climate changes which are at least to a significant extent caused by human activities. And that's something to worry about and act quickly upon.

Catholic Sex Crisis

As a young Christian, I had some involvement with the youth group of what we would now call "an ethno-specific church." That is, it was made up of people with a shared language, culture and geographic background. I saw something sad: the young people had nowhere to go. It was their parents' church and could never be theirs, because they had grown up English-speaking in Australia, with a mixed cultural background.

The majority of the young people left the church entirely, because that was the option they could see. A minority went to Anglo churches, but often integrated poorly. I had a suspicion that, for some of the parents, assimilation was a worse fate than apostasy.

What has this to do with the Catholic Church? The fact is that many Catholics feel they are in the same position. If they do not like, or do not feel they fit in the Catholic way of doing things, they have no clear path ahead. Unlike the Catholics, most Protestants feel that, if they don't like the Baptist way, for example, there are always Anglican, Quaker, Pentecostal or Uniting Churches, and that's just a start.

A religious group which lacks a clear exit path is dangerously close to being a cult.

With the sex abuse crisis in the Catholic Church, many Catholics are disgruntled. German statistics already show a marked decline in Catholic Church attendance. But one must feel for those Catholics who want to leave but don't know where to go. It would be healthy for the Catholic Church to recognise that those who jump ship for another church aren't necessarily abandoning Christianity.

However, many will no doubt stay, and will be faced with the tensions between, on the one hand, wanting to tidy up and go on with business as usual and, on the other, going all out for radical transformation.

It seems to me that celibacy is a major factor in the crisis, though I don't subscribe to the "give them a legitimate sexual outlet and they'll forget about children" idea. Paedophilia is a deeply engrained thing, and tends to persist despite marriage. It is found in all walks of life, not only the Catholic priesthood.

The celibate priesthood clearly not only has room for those genuinely called to a celibate lifestyle, but also for many who, while not desiring sex with adult women, struggle against attractions in various other directions. The priesthood becomes a hiding place and concentration pool, where exposure is more easily avoided. Additionally, where a married minister finds most of his or her community within family, I suspect that Catholic priests are forced to find most of that community sense within their own circles. "Family blindness" is clearly a factor in how so many priests have protected each other.

I am concerned about this crisis, and sad for those affected -- the victims of paedophiles, and the ordinary, decent Catholics who are also victims.

But I am also hopeful. Nearly 50 years ago, the Catholic Church set out on a path of reform. It has been a bumpy road, but progress has been made.

Perhaps the current crisis will be a catalyst for further change. It will certainly tend to weaken hierarchical control and perhaps push Catholics to rethink some of the ways in which traditions -- such as celibacy -- have come to dominate church thinking at the expense of more critical issues. The church probably needs to brace itself for a period of chaos, but, out of chaos, positive change can come.

Let's pray for our Catholic friends.